What macro markets mean for iGaming’s next move

While tariffs and trade tensions dominate headlines, it is liquidity that fundamentally reshapes the iGaming investment landscape, notes Ben Robinson, Managing Partner at Corfai.

Amid the discourse on tariffs, treasury auctions, and inflation, a more pivotal factor is at play: liquidity. The ebb and flow of global capital is redefining risk pricing, deal structures, and valuations in the iGaming sector.

For industry founders, investors, and dealmakers, grasping these macroeconomic shifts is not just advisable; it’s crucial for effectively timing exits, accessing capital, and anticipating upcoming cycles.

This article delves into the macroeconomic forces influencing capital accessibility, valuations, and M&A activity within the iGaming sector. Despite the prevailing uncertainty, there is strong evidence to suggest this moment could represent one of the most advantageous windows we’ve experienced in years.

Tariffs Are a Sideshow; Liquidity Is the Main Event

The recent escalation in US-China trade rhetoric has reignited concerns around tariffs, particularly affecting land-based gaming ventures reliant on Chinese hardware. However, the implications for iGaming firms are largely psychological rather than operational. Market volatility, rather than component pricing, is the key driver.

Some analysts argue that these tariff discussions are tactical maneuvers aimed at destabilizing markets just enough to facilitate rate cuts. Whether intentional or not, the resulting market reactions could precipitate a shift towards liquidity — an area where understanding the dynamics becomes critical.

While tariffs may slow supply chains, it is the fluctuations in bond markets, interest rates, and central bank balance sheets that ultimately dictate iGaming capital flows.

The $9 Trillion Challenge and Dollar Diplomacy

The US faces an impending refinancing challenge, with over $9 trillion in government debt maturing within the next 18 months. As interest costs strain federal budgets and bond markets display signs of stress, the pressure mounts on the Federal Reserve to adopt more accommodative financial measures. This could manifest as additional rate cuts or renewed quantitative easing (QE).

Beyond domestic considerations, a broader strategy may be emerging. This scenario extends beyond mere balance sheet concerns; it touches on the preservation of the dollar’s global dominance. Similar to the petrodollar agreements of the 1970s, trade policies and financial diplomacy may be utilized to stimulate foreign investment in U.S. treasuries.

The objective is clear: to distribute the debt burden more evenly across international balance sheets, ensuring that future treasury auctions are met with demand rather than indifference. This dynamic is particularly relevant for the iGaming sector, as favorable conditions could reactivate investor appetite, lower rates, and create a more conducive environment for mergers and acquisitions (M&A). Conversely, if this strategy falters, the consequences could be severe.

Liquidity: The Hidden Catalyst of Valuation

Global liquidity surged to historic levels earlier this year, bolstered by central bank interventions and a softening US dollar. Historical patterns indicate we’re in the latter phases of this liquidity surge, which tends to peak every five to six years.

Liquidity shapes sentiment, and in turn, sentiment influences valuations. Typically, there is a three-month lag between liquidity shifts and asset performance, suggesting that the current upward trend may have further to run.

However, caution is warranted. Tax outflows in the US have depleted treasury cash reserves, the Fed has scaled back its interventions, China’s central bank is tightening to protect its currency, and rising bond market volatility is escalating collateral demands, consequently reducing leverage opportunities.

In straightforward terms, while the current situation presents opportunities, this window may not remain open indefinitely.

An Urgent Call to Action for iGaming Founders

While macroeconomic trends might seem abstract, they are already reshaping capital pricing, buyer behavior, and the types of transactions that can close successfully.

The cost of capital has escalated. Even companies without direct exposure to bond markets are finding financing through lines of credit, convertible notes, or bank loans more challenging, as interest rates remain elevated and geopolitical uncertainties persist.

• Buyers have become more discerning. The speculative M&A climate is behind us; transactions now require clear value propositions and credible integration strategies.
• The inflated valuations witnessed post-COVID are unlikely to return soon. Sellers must adjust their pricing to align with current market realities.
• Strategic acquirers hold the competitive edge. Organizations with robust balance sheets can execute transactions with reduced reliance on debt.

The takeaway? Strong assets can still command favorable terms. If you’ve laid the groundwork, your timing could be impeccable.

M&A Momentum: A Sentiment Gauge for 2025

The iGaming sector enjoyed a vibrant deal flow in 2024, with around 50 transactions executed. Nevertheless, a more cautious approach emerged in the first quarter of 2025, as shifting market sentiment and heightened volatility led some buyers to adopt a wait-and-see attitude. Many of these deals are expected to regain traction once market confidence stabilizes.

Consolidation among affiliates has been relatively subdued compared to activity among operators and suppliers, hindered by external challenges including changes to Google’s algorithms, regulatory shifts in Brazil, stricter cookie tracking, and growing concerns over non-productive traffic.

In spite of these challenges, the affiliate model remains robust, especially in privately held enterprises, many of which showcase resilience and adaptability. The long-term outlook for high-quality affiliate assets remains positive, with growth anticipated as businesses navigate an evolving landscape.

Strategic transactions continue to occur, albeit often quietly and off-market. Buyers with conviction remain active behind the scenes, making strategic positioning and thorough market understanding more critical than ever.

Regulatory Landscape: Rewriting the Map

In tandem with macroeconomic shifts, regulatory dynamics continue to reshape global iGaming flows.

• Brazil and South America present lucrative opportunities due to burgeoning regulations, with enterprises positioning themselves ahead of the 2026 World Cup.
• The state-by-state rollout of the US market is underwhelming, yet revenue continues to flow from various streams.
• The UK’s recent budget was silent on gambling reform, indicating potential stability.
• Thailand and several Southeast Asian markets are exploring regulatory frameworks.
• The UAE’s emerging guidelines may soon establish it as a significant player in the market.
• India remains a sleeping giant, with vast untapped potential.
• Unregulated and cryptocurrency-driven platforms are thriving. Operators in over-regulated regions like Germany, the Netherlands, and parts of the US are increasingly gravitating towards sweepstakes and crypto casino models.

For entrepreneurs, identifying opportunities and challenges within the regulatory landscape can significantly influence strategic narratives.

What’s the Trade?

Here’s our analysis:

1. Liquidity levels remain elevated, providing short-term support for risk assets.
2. Quality assets will attract capital. Investment hasn’t vanished; it has simply become more selective.
3. Inflation concerns are tangible. A resurgence in inflation could compel the Fed to adopt a more hawkish stance, tightening conditions rapidly.
4. The underlying fundamentals of iGaming remain intact. Recurring revenue, global expansion, and digital scalability continue to garner serious interest.

This landscape may be in flux, but for those prepared and poised to leverage these changes, it presents an opportunity rather than a threat.

Final Thought: Position Yourself with Purpose

While the current environment seems tranquil—April’s inflation rate was reported at 2.33% and markets are on the rise—risks persist beneath the surface. Inflation could resurge. Demand for treasuries could weaken. The Fed’s balancing act is precarious.

Despite the challenges, we maintain an optimistic outlook.

“We may not be fully deployed yet, but we have invested more in the past six months than in several years combined. That should speak volumes,” says Robinson.

For founders contemplating growth initiatives, capital raises, or exits, this could be your moment. The right businesses may see these opportunities widen in the coming months.

Preparation will always trump prediction. Always.

Ben Robinson is an entrepreneur, investor, and strategic advisor for multiple high-value iGaming, sports betting, fintech, and media businesses, bringing over 25 years of experience in commercial and stakeholder management across diverse sectors.

Entering the iGaming industry in 2009 as a leader in global publishing, Ben subsequently spearheaded the EMEA expansion of a crypto-payment venture, co-founded and exited a crypto exchange, and, since founding RB Capital in 2014 and Corfai in 2023, has successfully executed over 20 transactions and raised significant investment capital.