The difference between average punters and sports betting experts
Tom Waterhouse of Waterhouse VC examines how data and all-encompassing models can lead to consistent profits for professional sports bettors.
What distinguishes exemplary sports betting professionals from the average enthusiast? In a recent webinar, we gained exclusive insights into the strategic methodologies of Tom Dry, a preeminent tennis bettor with a remarkable track record. Professional betting—a dynamic sector capable of generating stable returns regardless of economic fluctuations—serves as a compelling yet often underestimated investment opportunity. Dry’s sophisticated approach interweaves analytical rigor with profound domain knowledge, imparting valuable lessons not only for bettors but also for investors in search of uncorrelated returns amidst today’s volatile market landscapes.
Throughout our comprehensive dialogue with Dry, we delved into the disciplined and sometimes counterintuitive world of professional betting. While the specifics of his “secret sauce” remained elusive, he candidly shared the mindset, processes, and inquisitiveness that have underpinned his soaring success.
Early Days in Betting
Tom Dry’s journey commenced spectacularly with a winning wager—an 8/1 shot at Goodwood—when he was merely nine years old. However, he did not initially envision a future in professional betting. Following his studies in history and French at Durham University, Dry, like many graduates, set his sights on conventional career avenues. It wasn’t until after graduation that football betting captured his interest, appealing to his analytical proclivities.
Serendipity struck when his father encountered a recruitment advertisement from Starlizard, the data-centric gambling syndicate established by Tony Bloom, a figure celebrated as one of the world’s preeminent football bettors and the owner of Brighton & Hove Albion Football Club. Upon conducting his own research, Dry rapidly concluded that pursuing a career focused on betting strategies was significantly more enticing than traditional routes—and he promptly applied, securing a position.
The Data-Driven Approach to Sports Betting
At Starlizard, as is customary within most betting syndicates, the emphasis lies heavily on data analytics. Mirroring the operations of a quantitative hedge fund, these organizations construct robust statistical models to ascertain precise probabilities. Every conceivable factor—including team form, venue specifics, weather conditions, and historical performance—is meticulously integrated into these models. When the model’s inferred probability diverges from market quotes, it signals a potential edge ripe for exploitation. Across thousands of bets annually, these edges can compound—provided the models are regularly updated and executed with stringent discipline.
Bloom’s data-driven philosophy is also instrumental in his success as the owner of Brighton & Hove Albion. Under his stewardship, the club ascended from League One to the pinnacle of English football and notably qualified for the Europa League for the first time in 2023. Their astute transfer dealings exemplify this approach:
Brighton’s strategic maneuvers in the transfer market have garnered significant attention (Source: ESPN).
Similarly, Brentford FC, overseen by Matthew Benham—founder of Smartodds and Bloom’s former colleague—embodies a parallel success narrative. Benham and Bloom are pioneers of the widely utilized “expected goals” metric, leveraging it to enhance their betting ventures.
Over the past 15 years, Benham has infused roughly £100 million into Brentford, thereby elevating the club’s valuation to over £400 million, even as Rothschild has been appointed to explore a potential sale of his majority stake (Source: Sky News). Despite operating with a fraction of the financial resources available to Premier League heavyweights, both clubs continue to exceed expectations.
Starlizard Days
Upon joining Starlizard in 2017, Dry focused on refining the football model to incorporate nuances that are challenging for models to capture, such as team and player motivation, injuries, squad rotation, and off-field dynamics. Essentially, this involved injecting human insight into machine-generated probabilities—an intersection at which models yield their true value.
Dry attributes much of his growth to Starlizard’s culture, characterized by a flat hierarchy and an environment that fosters idea sharing. There were no “bad ideas;” the collective goal was the continuous enhancement of the model. If an individual believed a certain factor might influence outcomes, there was always an opportunity to test it.
During his tenure there, Dry began engaging seriously in personal betting, concentrating on golf and snooker. In snooker, he developed an innovative computer vision model that tracked ball positions and assessed shot difficulties, yielding a significant edge. However, he encountered a liquidity shortage in the markets which restrained his desired betting volume. It was a realization that propelled him toward the goal of betting professionally.
Going Solo
“The foundation of a winning model is unique, exclusive data crafted by people who truly understand the sport,” states Dry.
Tennis became a natural alignment for Dry. Having played since childhood, he possessed an intricate understanding of the sport’s dynamics. It presented global scale, year-round opportunities, and the potential for deeper liquidity, all conducive to establishing a competitive edge.
In the contemporary AI-driven landscape, readily scraping public data is commonplace, providing everyone access to basic statistics. However, true competitive advantage arises from discerning what truly impacts outcomes and developing proprietary datasets to validate those insights based on often overlooked variables.
Know Your Sports Betting Strengths
Dry emphasizes the critical importance of domain expertise. His team comprises seasoned tennis professionals—former players, coaches, and devoted scholars of the game. Recruitment interviews unfold through live match observations over Zoom, during which candidates must demonstrate a thorough grasp of pivotal concepts such as point construction, momentum shifts, and tactical subtleties influencing outcomes.
He focuses solely on his areas of expertise. When inquired if he would ever consider betting on cricket, he quipped: “My top score is 13.” Even in tennis, his initial modeling attempts concerning the women’s game fell short, reinforcing the notion that an edge is rooted not merely in data but in a profound understanding of the sport that exceeds ordinary comprehension.
Mentality and Approach
Dry’s philosophy is succinctly encapsulated in a mantra he upholds: “It’s better to sleep well than to eat well.” He prioritizes long-term sustainability over short-term gains, applying discipline and pragmatism while eschewing rigid theoretical frameworks. He maintains that while models are beneficial, their dependability has limits. “You need a multitude of IQ points to surpass trial and error,” he humorously asserts. The crucial factor is maintaining adaptability and allowing real-world experience to guide modifications.
For aspirational bettors, Dry advocates a reading list that includes:
- The Black Swan – Nassim Nicholas Taleb
- The Signal and the Noise – Nate Silver
In Dry’s view, the success of a thriving betting operation doesn’t rely on a singular “secret sauce.” Instead, it hinges on ongoing refinement—a synthesis of data, expert insights, and a judicious mindset to discover opportunities where others perceive only randomness.
Waterhouse VC (a fund for wholesale investors) oversees a diversified portfolio that includes global listed equities and unlisted investments, leveraging the Waterhouse family’s expertise. The asset allocation spans three pillars: Option Deals, Global Equities, and Professional Betting.
Since its inception in August 2019, Waterhouse VC has achieved a gross total return of +3,227% (annualized at 87.2%), as of March 31, 2025, assuming the reinvestment of all distributions.
